Global Population Trends

Syllabus: Prelims Unit II - Geography of India

1950 vs 2023 fertility rates:

• 1950: 5 children per woman globally
• 2023: 2.3 children per woman
• Reduction: Nearly 50% in 75 years

Projected fertility rate by 2100:

• 1.7 children per woman (Washington University Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)

Global population projections:

• 2064: Peak at 9.7 billion
• 2100: Decline to 8.8 billion

Country-specific projections:

• Japan: 128 million (2017) → 53 million (2100)
• Italy: 61 million → 28 million
• UK: Peak at 75 million (2063) → 71 million (2100)
• 23 countries including Spain, China, Portugal, Thailand, South Korea: Population halved by 2100
• Africa: Increase to 3 billion by 2100
• Nigeria: Projected to become 2nd most populous country globally

Indian Population Trends

Fertility rate changes:

• 1950s: 5.7 children per woman
• Current: 2.1 children per woman

Population growth:

• Expected to continue rising for a few more years (UN projection)
• Growth rate declining; projected to be less than 0.5% during 2031-41

Age demographics:

• Youth (0-19 years): 41% (2011) → 25% (2041 projection)
• Elderly (60+ years): 8.6% (2011) → Expected to double by 2041
• 2023-2050: Elderly population projected to more than double

Fertility rate trends (Sample Registration System data):

• 2008-10: 86.1%
• 2018-20: 68.7%
• Rural areas: 20.2% decline
• Urban areas: 15.6% decline

Factors Affecting Fertility Rates

• Increased marriage age
• Availability of simple contraception methods
• Higher education and employment opportunities for women
• Rising cost of living

Challenges of Declining Birth Rates

• Reduction in working-age population within 25 years
• Increasing elderly population (60+ years)
• Concerns about care for the elderly
• Rising medical costs for older population
• Potential decrease in national productivity
• Questions about tax contributions for national development

Global Measures to Address Declining Birth Rates

• UK: Supporting immigration:
• Improved maternity facilities
• Paternity leave
• Free childcare
• Financial incentives
• Enhanced employment rights
• Sweden: Increased fertility rate from 1.7 to 1.9 children per woman
• South Korea (2022):
• Incentive of ₹1.35 lakh (Indian currency) per child birth
• Additional financial support for childcare for one year